ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization projects global cereal output for 2026 at 2.98 billion tonnes, reflecting a 2% decrease compared to last year’s record-breaking harvest. Despite the decline, this total is still anticipated to be the second-largest on record. The latest estimate falls short by 3.4 million tonnes from the July forecast, with an annual reduction of 61.1 million tonnes, marking the most significant year-on-year decrease since 2018.
Maize production worldwide is now predicted at 1.309 billion tonnes, revised downward due to weaker crop prospects. Hot summer temperatures and drought conditions adversely affected yields in key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Official estimates also led to smaller downward adjustments for India and Paraguay. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-expected yields, with both nations likely to record well-above-average maize production in 2026.
Forecasts for world wheat production are now set at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from prior estimates. Improved yield expectations prompted upward revisions for Canada and Morocco by approximately 1.5 million tonnes each. Additionally, estimates for Russia and Ukraine have been raised, though dry conditions reduced forecasts for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Despite this upward adjustment, global wheat output is still projected to be 3.8% lower than in 2025, ranking as the second-largest crop ever recorded.
Maize declines drive downward revision in global cereal outlook
The FAO now estimates global rice production at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis for the 2026/27 season. This indicates a 1.9% decrease from the revised record achieved in 2025/26. Recent figures for Myanmar and robust yields from Sri Lanka’s main crop contributed to the latest projection. These gains offset decreases reported by China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings fell to multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates total cereal consumption worldwide in 2026/27 will reach 2.965 billion tonnes, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2% from the previous season. The increase is driven by higher intake of coarse grains and rice, while wheat use is expected to decline from last season’s elevated levels. World rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes, supported by population growth fueling food demand. Feed requirements continue to be significant, with barley consumption in China and maize use in the United States playing important roles.
Global cereal inventories remain at comfortable levels historically
At the conclusion of the 2027 seasons, world cereal stocks are forecast at 947.2 million tonnes, representing a decrease of 10.7 million tonnes from previous estimates but still 1.8 million tonnes above initial opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% recorded in the previous season. While wheat reserves are set to increase in Russia and Ukraine, reduced maize and barley inventories have tempered the overall stock outlook.
The international trade of cereals in 2026/27 is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, a rise of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier forecasts. Nonetheless, this figure remains below the record volume seen in 2025/26. The increased trade is mainly driven by stronger maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. In terms of rice, global trade is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes for 2026, still 1.9% below the record set in 2025.