MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a goal to produce 662 million tonnes of coal each year by 2050, as part of a newly endorsed industry development plan. This target is incorporated into Russia’s revised coal expansion strategy. In 2024, the country produced roughly 443 million tonnes. The government approved this framework through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting long-term benchmarks for production, exports, and sector growth.
Four pathways are detailed in the programme for the coal industry through 2050. The primary scenario projects output reaching 530.1 million tonnes by 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes by 2036, ultimately hitting 662 million tonnes in 2050. Alternative scenarios suggest lower output levels in 2050, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside production goals, Russia has set export targets. In the main scenario, coal exports are expected to reach 266.7 million tonnes by 2030. They are projected to increase to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036 and 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The programme encompasses both domestic coal consumption and international trade.
Production and export ambitions
The plan calls for Russia to sustain its current mining capacity while expanding additional coal resources. It emphasizes a stronger role for coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which together accounted for 48.3% of national production in 2024. The goal is to increase this share to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia reports over 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves.
The strategy also addresses targets related to coal processing methods and mining techniques. Processed coal, excluding lignite, comprised 58.9% of total production in 2024. The plan aims to raise this figure to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining contributed 78.4% of output in 2024, with an expected increase to between 82% and 85% under the long-term indicators. The document further details measures concerning productivity, technological advancement, safety, and environmental standards.
A comprehensive coal strategy extending to 2050
Russia’s approach will unfold in three phases. The initial phase, ending in 2030, focuses on enhancing production and supporting the industry. The second phase, spanning 2031 to 2036, centers on coal utilization, processing technology, and regional logistics. The final phase, from 2037 to 2050, will implement the long-term objectives. The Energy Ministry will oversee progress, coordinating with federal, regional, and involved organizations, with annual reporting mandated to the Economic Development Ministry per government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the revised programme during a government session on September 21. This plan replaces Russia’s earlier coal industry strategy approved in 2020 through 2035. Novak noted the sector’s gross value added is projected to increase sixfold by 2050, with an overall multiplier effect approaching 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne target remains a scenario within the plan, not an absolute forecast.